The Future of Jobs Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution – January 2016 – WEF



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v Preface
3 Chapter 1: The Future of Jobs and Skills
3 Introduction
5 Drivers of Change
10 Employment Trends
19 Skills Stability
26 Future Workforce Strategy
33 Chapter 2: The Industry Gender Gap
34 The Business Case for Change
36 Gaps in the Female Talent Pipeline
37 Barriers to Change
39 Women and Work in the Fourth Industrial Revolution
40 Approaches to Leveraging Female Talent
43 Endnotes
45 References and Further Reading
49 Appendix A: Report Methodology
57 Appendix B: Industry and Regional Classifications
61 User’s Guide: How to Read the Industry, Regional and Gender Gap Profiles
69 List of Industry, Regional and Gender Gap Profiles
71 Industry Profiles
91 Country and Regional Profiles
123 Industry Gender Gap Profiles
143 Acknowledgements
145 Contributors
147 Global Challenge Partners

The Future of Jobs Report | iii iv | The Future of Jobs Report
Today, we are on the cusp of a Fourth Industrial Revolution. Developments in genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, 3D printing and biotechnology, to name just a few, are all building on and amplifying one another. This will lay the foundation for a revolution more comprehensive and all-encompassing than anything we have ever seen. Smart systems—homes, factories, farms, grids or cities—will help tackle problems ranging from supply chain management to climate change. The rise of the sharing economy will allow people to monetize everything from their empty house to their car.
While the impending change holds great promise, the patterns of consumption, production and employment created by it also pose major challenges requiring proactive adaptation by corporations, governments and individuals. Concurrent to the technological revolution are a set of broader socio-economic, geopolitical and demographic drivers of change, each interacting in multiple directions
and intensifying one another. As entire industries adjust, most occupations are undergoing a fundamental transformation. While some jobs are threatened by redundancy and others grow rapidly, existing jobs are also going through a change in the skill sets required to do them. The debate on these transformations is often polarized between those who foresee limitless new opportunities and those that foresee massive dislocation of jobs. In fact, the reality is highly specific to the industry, region and occupation in question as well as the ability of various stakeholders to manage change.
The Future of Jobs Report is a first step in becoming specific about the changes at hand. It taps into the knowledge of those who are best placed to observe the dynamics of workforces—Chief Human Resources and Strategy Officers—by asking them what the current shifts mean, specifically for employment, skills and recruitment across industries and geographies. In particular, we have introduced a new measure—skills stability—to quantify the degree of skills disruption within an occupation, a job family or an entire industry. We have also been able
to provide an outlook on the gender dynamics of the changes underway, a key element in understanding how the benefits and burdens of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be distributed.
Overall, there is a modestly positive outlook for employment across most industries, with jobs growth expected in several sectors. However, it is also clear that this need for more talent in certain job categories is accompanied by high skills instability across all job categories. Combined together, net job growth and skills instability result in most businesses currently facing major recruitment challenges and talent shortages, a pattern already evident in the results and set to get worse over the next five years.
The question, then, is how business, government and individuals will react to these developments. To prevent a worst-case scenario—technological change accompanied by talent shortages, mass unemployment and growing inequality—reskilling and upskilling of today’s workers will be critical. While much has been said about the need for reform in basic education, it is simply not possible to weather the current technological revolution by waiting for the next generation’s workforce to become better prepared. Instead it is critical that businesses take an active role in supporting their current workforces through re-training, that individuals take a proactive approach to their own lifelong learning and that governments create the enabling environment, rapidly and creatively, to assist these efforts. In particular, business collaboration within industries to create larger pools of skilled talent will become indispensable, as will multi-sector skilling partnerships that leverage the very same collaborative models that underpin many of the technology-driven business changes underway today. Additionally, better data and planning metrics, such as those in this Report, are critical in helping to anticipate and proactively manage the current transition in labour markets.
We are grateful for the leadership of Jeffrey Joerres, Chairman Emeritus, ManpowerGroup and Chair of the Global Agenda Council on the Future of Jobs; Jamie McAuliffe, President and CEO, Education for Employment and Vice-Chair of the Global Agenda Council on the Future of Jobs; J. Frank Brown, Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer, General Atlantic LLC and Chair of the Global Agenda Council on Gender Parity and Mara Swan, Executive Vice-President, Global Strategy and Talent, ManpowerGroup and Vice-Chair of the Global Agenda Council on Gender Parity.
We would also like to express our appreciation to Till Leopold, Project Lead, Employment, Skills and Human Capital Initiative; Vesselina Ratcheva, Data Analyst, Employment and Gender Initiatives; and Saadia Zahidi, Head of Employment and Gender Initiatives, for their dedication to this Report. We would like to thank Yasmina Bekhouche, Kristin Keveloh, Paulina Padilla Ugarte, Valerie Peyre, Pearl Samandari and Susan Wilkinson for their support of this project at the World Economic Forum. Finally, we welcome the untiring commitment of the Partners of the Global Challenge Initiative on Employment, Skills and Human Capital and the Global Challenge Initiative on Preface

Founder and Executive Chairman
Member of the Managing Board
The Future of Jobs Report | v
Gender Parity, who have each been instrumental in shaping this combined Report of the two Global Challenge Initiatives.
The current technological revolution need not become a race between humans and machines but rather an opportunity for work to truly become a channel through which people recognize their full potential. To ensure that we achieve this vision, we must become more specific and much faster in understanding the changes underway and cognizant of our collective responsibility to lead our businesses and communities through this transformative moment.

Part 1
Preparing for the Workforce of the Fourth Industrial Revolution

The Future of Jobs Report | 3

Disruptive changes to business models will have a profound
impact on the employment landscape over the coming
years. Many of the major drivers of transformation currently
affecting global industries are expected to have a significant
impact on jobs, ranging from significant job creation to job
displacement, and from heightened labour productivity to widening skills gaps. In many industries and countries, the most in-demand occupations or specialties did not exist
10 or even five years ago, and the pace of change is set
to accelerate. By one popular estimate, 65% of children
entering primary school today will ultimately end up working
in completely new job types that don’t yet exist.1 In such
a rapidly evolving employment landscape, the ability
to anticipate and prepare for future skills requirements,
job content and the aggregate effect on employment
is increasingly critical for businesses, governments and
individuals in order to fully seize the opportunities presented by these trends—and to mitigate undesirable outcomes.Past waves of technological advancement and
demographic change have led to increased prosperity, productivity and job creation. This does not mean, however, that these transitions were free of risk or
difficulty. Anticipating and preparing for the current
transition is therefore critical. As a core component of
the World Economic Forum’s Global Challenge Initiative on Employment, Skills and Human Capital, the Future of Jobs project aims to bring specificity to the upcoming
disruptions to the employment and skills landscape in
industries and regions—and to stimulate deeper thinking
about how business and governments can manage this
change. The industry analysis presented in this Report will form the basis of dialogue with industry leaders to address
industry-specific talent challenges, while the country and
regional analysis presented in this Report will be integrated
into national and regional public-private collaborations to promote employment and skills.
The Report’s research framework has been shaped
and developed in collaboration with the Global Agenda
Council on the Future of Jobs and the Global Agenda
Council on Gender Parity, including leading experts from academia, international organizations, professional service firms and the heads of human resources of major
organizations. The employer survey at the heart of this
Report was conducted through the World Economic Forum’s membership and with the particular support of three Employment, Skills and Human Capital Global
Challenge Partners: Adecco Group, ManpowerGroup and Mercer.

This Report seeks to understand the current and
future impact of key disruptions on employment levels, skill
sets and recruitment patterns in different industries and
countries. It does so by asking the Chief Human Resources
Officers (CHROs) of today’s largest employers to imagine
how jobs in their industry will change up to the year 2020—
far enough into the future for many of today’s expected
trends and disruptions to have begun taking hold, yet close
enough to consider adaptive action today, rather than
merely speculate on future risks and opportunities.
While only a minority of the world’s global workforce of more than three billion people is directly employed by large and emerging multinational employers, these
companies often act as anchors for smaller firms and local
entrepreneurship ecosystems. Therefore, in addition to their
own significant share of employment, workforce-planning decisions by these firms have the potential to transform
local labour markets through indirect employment and
by setting the pace for changing skills and occupational
This Report aims to serve as a call to action. While the
implications of current disruptions to business models for
jobs are far-reaching, even daunting, rapid adjustment to
the new reality and its opportunities is possible, provided
there is concerted effort by all stakeholders. By evaluating
the future labour market from the perspective of some
of the world’s largest employers we hope to improve the
current stock of knowledge around anticipated skills needs,
recruitment patterns and occupational requirements.
Furthermore, it is our hope that this knowledge
can incentivize and enhance partnerships between
governments, educators, training providers, workers and
employers in order to better manage the transformative
impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on employment,
skills and education.

About Raymond Morel (1380 Articles)
Raymond Morel is a member of the Board of Directors at SI and is President of Social-IN3, a cooperative of a researchers’ convinced of the need to address new challenges of today's Information Age, which is slowly and surely modify the entire society.

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